{"id":1266,"date":"2019-07-03T06:56:50","date_gmt":"2019-07-03T06:56:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.anfre.com\/?p=1266"},"modified":"2019-07-03T06:56:50","modified_gmt":"2019-07-03T06:56:50","slug":"alcoa-forecasts-2019-alumina-surplus-on-china-production-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anfre.com\/?p=1266","title":{"rendered":"Alcoa forecasts 2019 alumina surplus on China production rises"},"content":{"rendered":"

The removal of US sanctions on producer Rusal has added strength to Alcoa’s forecast of a surplus in alumina in 2019.<\/p>\n

<\/strong>United States-based Alcoa, the world\u2019s eighth-largest aluminium producer, has forecast that there will be a surplus of alumina in 2019 while it increases aluminium metal shipments.<\/p>\n

There was a 600,000-tonne deficit of alumina at the end of 2018, the company said, rounding off a year of record market tightness.<\/p>\n

Fastmarkets\u2019 alumina index rocketed upward to $707.75 per tonne on April 24, 2018, the highest since the index was first assessed in 2010, because a series of stoppages at major refineries choked supply.<\/p>\n

But Alcoa is forecasting that the market will swing to a surplus of 200,000-1 millions this year, even if the current shortfall in supply continues. The shortfall results from the closure of Norsk Hydro\u2019s Alunorte facility in Brazil.<\/p>\n

\u00abThe projected alumina surplus is being driven by China, where refining expansions are expected to outpace demand growth from smelting,\u00bb Alcoa said.<\/p>\n

Fastmarkets\u2019 alumina index will be used in a basket of prices to settle contracts on the London Metal Exchange, the exchange announced in January.<\/p>\n

2018 supply squeeze<\/p>\n

<\/strong>In March 2018, Hydro\u2019s Alunorte refinery was forced to reduce its output by 50% in line with state environmental concerns.<\/p>\n

Given its capacity for 7 million tonnes per year, a potential 3.5 million tonnes of alumina was subsequently kept from the market.<\/p>\n

In April, US sanctions against Russian aluminium producer UC Rusal, which runs an alumina refinery in Aghinish, Ireland, further restricted supply.<\/p>\n

Market to swing to surplus<\/p>\n

<\/strong>But the factors that led to a deficit last year look set to improve. Norsk Hydro announced on January 16 that some state-level embargoes had already been removed.<\/p>\n

The return of Alunorte to full production under the new Brazilian government is expected to reintroduce much-needed material to the market.<\/p>\n

\u00abWith the production embargo removed at a state level, Alunorte is gearing up to return to full production. Yet, the embargo at a federal level remains in place. The current alumina price of less than $400 per tonne reflects this, and we see a potential restart from the second quarter onward, with a return of 3 million tpy putting pressure on marginal Chinese producers,\u00bb BMO Capital Markets analyst Kash Kamal said.<\/p>\n

US sanctions against UC Rusal were removed on January 27, further easing any residual tightness from 2018.<\/p>\n

Further, a strike at Alcoa\u2019s Brazilian refinery in September 2018, which exacerbated last year\u2019s supply
\nsqueeze, has ended. Indeed, Alcoa\u2019s shipments of alumina are set to increase by 5.8-6.6% year-onyear
\nin 2019 to a total of 13.6-13.7 million tonnes.<\/p>\n

Refined metal shipment increase<\/strong><\/p>\n

The decommissioning of the Avil\u00e9s and La Coru\u00f1a plants was announced in October 2018 and will see
\nthe end of operations at the two smelters, which have combined capacity for 124,000 tpy.<\/p>\n

The move has been described as an operational improvement, and higher year-on-year production is
\nexpected. Casthouses will remain open in both locations, however, with La Coru\u00f1a also retaining its
\npasting operations.<\/p>\n

Alcoa expects an annual improvement to net income of $70-80 million on the strength of the
\nclosures and subsequent restructuring.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The removal of US sanctions on producer Rusal has added strength to Alcoa’s forecast of a surplus in alumina in 2019. United States-based Alcoa, the world\u2019s eighth-largest aluminium producer, has forecast that there will be a surplus of alumina in 2019 while it increases aluminium metal shipments. There was a 600,000-tonne deficit of alumina at … <\/p>\n

Seguir leyendo<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categoria","item-wrap"],"yoast_head":"\r\nAlcoa forecasts 2019 alumina surplus on China production rises - Asociaci\u00f3n Nacional de Fabricantes e Instaladores de Productos Refractarios, Materiales y Servicios Afines<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alcoa forecasts 2019 alumina surplus on China production rises - Asociaci\u00f3n Nacional de Fabricantes e Instaladores de Productos Refractarios, Materiales y Servicios Afines\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The removal of US sanctions on producer Rusal has added strength to Alcoa’s forecast of a surplus in alumina in 2019. 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